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Tag: us economy

  • How does the Central bank control inflation?

    You may have heard in the news in the last year, that the Fed has been raising the interest rate. In this post, I will be explaining which is the “interest rate” and how the central bank of the U.S. (the Federal Reserve) does that to control inflation.

    After Jan 2022, there has been a steady rise in prices of many items, esp. fuel, housing rent, and food prices. If you want to understand what inflation is and how it is calculated, you can read my detailed article on inflation here.

    Inflation always happens when there is more demand than supply and when there is an expectation of inflation to continue. Producers raise the price of the goods and services in demand, to make more profit from them.

    The central bank of a country (the Federal Reserve in the US) intervenes when inflation is out of control or is significantly high compared to the target level. As this blog mostly focuses on the US Federal Reserve monetary tools, I use the terms the Fed and central bank interchangeably. However, central banks in other countries also use similar monetary tools.

    Is inflation always bad?

    In the US and many advanced countries, the target average rate of inflation is around 2% every year. This little bit of inflation rate is considered desirable, as it helps borrowers pay off their debt. When there is some inflation, borrowers will have to pay slightly less in purchasing power terms because their money is now worth less to the lenders, exactly by the rate of inflation.

    Additionally, it also motivates people to spend their money on goods and services instead of holding on to them, as their money will lose its value next year by the rate of inflation. So, we get our normal production and consumption, and the economy continues to run smoothly.

    What are the two goals of a central bank and how does it achieve it?

    The central bank uses monetary policy to keep inflation low and promote maximum employment. By maximum employment, we mean the highest level of employment that an economy can sustain while maintaining a stable inflation rate. In the US, these goals are referred to as the Fed’s dual mandate.

    You may ask how the Fed achieves its dual goals. Essentially, the Fed uses its monetary policy tools to start a chain reaction in the economy, each causing one another. In the US, the Fed’s chief body for monetary policymaking is called the Federal Open Market Commission (FOMC). FOMC meets eight times a year and looks at data on current economic conditions, like what is going up and what is going down and how the economy is likely to do in the future based on the data. Based on that information the FOMC makes monetary policy decisions.

    When inflation is high for a long period and unemployment is at a very low level, we call it an overheating economy. The central banks try to raise the interest rates to slow down the overheating economy. This is called contractionary or tight monetary policy.

    Tools of Monetary Policy

    Now, let’s look at the tools the Fed can use to bring inflation down to the stable 2% average rate. This is done in two steps:

    First, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will raise the target range for the Federal funds rate. This is the rate at which commercial banks borrow and lend their excess reserves to each other overnight. This rate is not set by the Fed, instead, it is determined by the market forces of demand and supply between commercial banks.

    On any given date, there are many different transactions in the federal funds market and they settle at slightly different rates, the effective federal funds rate measures the median rate of these transactions.

    FOMC sets a target range for the federal funds rate. In other words, the majority of the banks’ transactions should fall within the target range. Banks with deficits can borrow money from other commercial banks. The next day those banks return the money with a little bit of interest.

    Now, the main task for the Fed is to use its monetary tools so that this federal funds rate goes up because this is the driving force for all the other interest rates in an economy.

    Interest on reserve balance is the main tool

    So, to steer the federal funds rate in the target range set by FOMC, the Fed uses interest on reserve balance as its primary monetary policy tool. The interest on reserve balances rate is the interest received by commercial banks on deposits that banks hold in their reserve balance account at a regional Federal Reserve Bank. This interest rate is a risk-free investment option for commercial banks. This, the interest on reserve balances rate is set by the Fed and is, therefore, an “administered rate,”.

    Interest on reserve balance: Banks can deposit the excess reserve with the Fed risk-free overnight, and earn interest just like you can do with a savings account.

    When the Fed sees the economy is overheating with high inflation and a tight labor market, it tries to slow down the economy by raising the interest on the reserve balance. With that, the banks will be more willing to deposit their reserves with the Fed, rather than lending to other banks in the federal funds market.

    A key point to note here is that the interest on reserve balances rate serves as a reservation rate or the floor rate for banks. This is the minimum interest banks would be willing to accept in order to lend to each other, rather than keeping it with the Fed. If the Fed raises this interest on the reserve balance, commercial banks must raise the Federal funds rate in order to attract other banks to lend to them.

    Another key concept that ensures that the federal funds rate does not fall far below the interest on reserve balances rate is called arbitrage. Arbitrage means simultaneous purchase and sale of funds (or goods) in order to profit from a difference in price.

    So, for example, if we assume the federal funds rate is 1.75 percent and the interest on reserve balances rate is slightly higher at 2.25 percent, banks will see that they can borrow funds in the federal funds market at a lower rate and earn higher interest by depositing those funds at the Fed. They will keep doing that until with the forces of demand and supply, the increase in demand for funds in the federal funds market will cause the federal funds rate to rise. It will keep rising until it reaches the interest on reserve balances rate so that banks no longer see the opportunity to profit by borrowing in the federal funds market and depositing it with the Fed. 

    As the Fed sets the interest on reserve balances rate directly, the Fed can steer the federal funds rate up or down by raising or lowering the level of the interest on reserve balances rate. In fact, this phenomenon of arbitrage makes interest on reserve balances a very effective tool for steering the federal funds rate direction.

    There are two other tools that the Fed can use to guide the federal funds rate

    1. By setting a floor with an overnight reverse repurchase rate,

    2. and by setting the ceiling using a discount window

    Let’s understand both of them.

    The Fed has an overnight reverse repurchase facility that is open to a broader set of financial institutions, as interest on reserve balances is available only to banks and a few other institutions. This facility allows these financial institutions to deposit their funds at a Federal Reserve Bank and earn the overnight reverse repurchase agreement rate offered by the Fed.

    Thus, the overnight reverse repurchase agreement rate does the same thing as the interest on reserve balances rate does by acting as a reservation rate for these financial institutions. If this rate is higher than the federal funds rate, then by pressure of demand and supply, the Federal funds rate starts going up until there is no profit from arbitrage. The overnight reverse repurchase agreement facility is a supplementary tool because the rate the Fed sets for it helps set a floor for the federal funds rate.

    So when it raises the overnight reverse repurchase rate, the Federal funds rate tends to move up as well.

    The discount rate is the rate banks have to pay to the Fed for borrowing money from the Fed through the Fed’s discount window. Banks are more likely to borrow from each other (at the federal funds rate) only if it is lower or equal to the discount rate that they have to pay to borrow from the Fed. Thus, the discount rate acts as a ceiling for the federal funds rate. Also, it is set higher than the interest on reserve balances rate and the overnight reverse repurchase agreement rate.

    Lastly, there is another tool that used to be the Fed’s primary tool to control the money supply in the economy before the 2008 financial crisis. This is called open market operations where the Fed would buy or sell t-bonds. Now, with ample reserves in the banking system, the Fed only uses this as a supplemental tool to help maintain ample levels of reserves. The Fed can buy or sell government securities in the open market to increase or decrease these reserves in the banks account with the Fed.

    In a nutshell, when the Fed wants to control inflation, it would set a higher range for the Federal funds rate. To achieve this target, it would increase the interest on reserve balances rate as the main monetary policy tool. It can also use additional tools by raising overnight reverse repurchase agreement rate, and discount rate. All this will ensure the federal funds rate stays within the high target range set by the FOMC.

    Why does the Federal fund rate matter?

    Since the federal funds rate affects all the other interest rates in the economy, all the other interest rates go up as well. At high interest rates, households will borrow less money to buy big-ticket items they want. This will cause a reduction in spending by households. This will cause overall savings to increase because now they are getting higher interest rate to save money in a bank.

    Once household demand is reduced, firms will reduce their investments. They will also reduce their workforce and demand fewer workers. This will reduce employment levels also and cause the inflated prices to return to the target of 2%.

    The now-raised federal fund rate would cause other market interest rates like mortgage, auto, and other interest rates that banks charge from households and businesses to rise as well. The increased cost of borrowing will reduce spending across all sectors of the economy, lowering excess demand and bringing prices back to normal.

    The Fed will do the exact reverse of this process when the economy is in a recession when the inflation is below the 2% target rate and there is high unemployment. It will lower the Federal funds rate target range by lowering interest on the reserve balance. It can also use additional help from lowering interest on overnight reverse repurchase agreement rates, and discount rates to give a boost to the economy.

    How effective are these tools in reality?

    All these monetary policy tools only work when inflation is caused by demand-pull factors. However, if it is due to cost-push factors, this measure may cause more harm than good. Cost-push factors include supply shocks when the supply of the products is hampered. There could be many reasons for a reduction in supply such as increased cost of raw material and other inputs, and natural calamities. Trade restrictions such as sanctions imposed on a country can also cause supply disruptions.

    Also, there is a direct link between reducing inflation and reducing overall economic growth. Even though central banks aim for a soft landing when they raise interest rates to bring down inflation, sometimes it doesn’t go as planned.

    In economics, a soft landing means a moderate economic slowdown following a period of growth. In the past, the Fed in the US has had a mixed record in achieving a soft landing when it raised interest rates.

    In addition, inflation expectations continue to play a key role in how people react to the contractionary monetary policy. If people continue to believe the prices to go up, they will tend to make the purchases now, rather than in the future when the worth of their money can get further low.

    The board of governors at the Fed, as well as various economists that work there, take into consideration all these factors and keep a watch on the trend. They can alter the monetary policy according to the direction of its performance.

  • What are the Fed’s new monetary policy tools?

    Today we’re going to talk about a really important topic: what are the main tools that the Federal Reserve uses to influence the economy and how does it do it?

    We will also learn the tools that the Fed uses in its new monetary policy and how they are different from their old way. Don’t worry if you’re not familiar with economics, because I am going to break it down step by step.

    So, first things first, what is the Federal Reserve? Well, it’s the central bank of the United States and to put it simply, The Federal Reserve (the Fed) is like a bank for the U.S. government.


    If you look at the Federal Reserve website, it says “One of the most important functions of the Fed is to promote economic stability using monetary policy. The Fed’s goals for monetary policy, as defined by Congress, are to promote maximum employment and price stability.” This means the highest level of employment that the US economy can sustain while maintaining a stable inflation rate of around 2%.

    So how does the Fed control the economy?

    The Fed has some tools to control the economy, these are monetary policy tools. Imagine the economy is like a car. If it’s going too fast and might crash, then the Fed can step on the brakes. If it’s too slow, they can press the gas pedal.

    The FOMC is the money boss

    So let’s understand how the Fed works, The Federal Open Market Committee, or the FOMC is like the money boss of the Federal Reserve. They meet in Washington, D.C., eight times a year to talk about the economy. They look at economic data and statistics, talk to economists, and decide how much interest banks should charge each other.

    This interest is called the federal funds rate. Fed funds rate is the banks’ overnight lending and borrowing rate from each other. This rate matters because it affects how much regular people pay for things like houses and cars. If it’s high, things are a bit more expensive. If it’s low, things are more affordable.

    Let’s understand it step by step, Banks have a place where they put some of their money, called the Federal Reserve. They earn interest on it. Sometimes, one bank has extra money and another needs some to do their everyday stuff. So, the bank with extra money can lend it to the one that needs it. The important part is that the interest rate for this lending is not decided by the big boss or the Fed but by the banks themselves. They agree on a fair rate and it is thus market-determined.

    So how does the Fed steer this key interest rate in the target range set up by FOMC?

    The Fed uses its two administered rates – the first is the interest on reserve balance and the second is the rate on reverse purchase agreement. These are their main monetary tools to control the Federal funds rate in the current times.

    According to the Fed’s chair, Jeremy Powell, “The Federal Reserve sets two overnight interest rates: the interest rate paid on banks’ reserve balances and the rate on our reverse repurchase agreements. We use these two administered rates to keep a market-determined rate, the federal funds rate, within a target range set by the FOMC.”

    When the FOMC wants the fed funds rate to go up, the Fed moves the interest on the reserve balance up. This rate sets the lowest interest rate banks are willing to accept when lending out their money to anyone else. Since banks can also earn this interest by depositing their money at the Federal Reserve and keeping money with the Fed is a safe way to earn money, banks prefer to do this rather than lend it at a lower rate to another bank.

    This acts as a floor for the Federal funds rate, which means the banks will not accept any lower interest rate than this to lend money to one another for a short term.

    Another important concept to understand here is called “arbitrage,” which is like making a profit by buying low and selling high. So let’s say the federal funds rate is 5.5%, and the Fed pays 6% for deposits to be kept at Fed, banks can borrow at 5.5% from other banks and then deposit at 6% to make a profit.

    This pushes the federal funds rate up until it’s close to the interest on reserve balances rate (6%). Similar to the interest on reserve balance which is mainly for commercial banks, the Fed also has other tools, like the “Overnight Reverse Repurchase Agreement Facility,” which is the interest other broader financial institutions can earn by keeping money at the Fed. Thus, it serves the same purpose as the interest on reserve balance and sets a floor for the federal funds rate, which means the federal funds rate won’t go below this.

    The other tool the Fed uses is the Discount Window. Because banks will not likely borrow at a higher rate than they can borrow from the Fed, this acts as a ceiling. It is set higher than the interest on reserve balances rate and the overnight reverse repurchase agreement rate.

    So these are two tools that the Fed is now using in the ample reserves case.

    The Fed’s tools before the 2008 crisis

    The Fed used to use this tool called Open Market Operations as its primary tool, where it bought treasury securities to pump money into the economy. However, after the 2008 financial crisis, it has ample reserves that it only buys government securities to make sure the reserves remain ample in the banking system. So, it uses open market operations only as a supplement tool.

    So how does the FOMC decide on the target interest rate?

    Economic data on inflation and unemployment helps the FOMC decide its target interest rate. Over the years, FOMC has been changing this Federal funds rate target range up and down to help the economy. Think of it like a volume knob on your music player.

    When the economy was in trouble after the 2008 financial crisis, the Fed turned the volume to almost zero to help it get better in 2015.

    Then, when the COVID-19 pandemic happened, they quickly turned the volume back down to almost zero to help the economy during that tough time.

    Most recently, since last June 2022, the Fed has been raising the interest rate to control inflation. As of today, the target range for the Federal funds rate is between 5.25 to 5.50%.

    So, you can think of the Fed as a DJ for the economy, adjusting the volume to keep things running smoothly.

  • Top 6 economic trends

    In this post, we will discuss the top 6 economic trends that will become more popular in the year 2024.

    1. The rise of artificial intelligence and automation in various industries, such as manufacturing and transportation. For instance, self-driving cars will become more prominent, which may reduce the need for human drivers.

    2. The continued growth of e-commerce and online retail, with companies like Amazon expanding their reach and dominance. As people increasingly prefer shopping from the comfort of their homes, traditional brick-and-mortar stores may face challenges.

    3. The increasing importance of sustainability and environmentally-friendly practices in business operations. Companies that adopt sustainable measures and invest in renewable energy may gain a competitive edge.

    4. The rise of the gig economy and freelance work, as more people choose flexible jobs and remote work options. Platforms like Fiverr and Upwork will continue to thrive, connecting freelancers with work opportunities.

    5. The impact of demographic changes, such as an aging population and changing consumer preferences. Industries catering to healthcare, elderly care, and wellness will experience significant growth.

    6. Let’s not forget about cryptocurrency and blockchain technology’s impact on the financial sector. These technologies have the potential to revolutionize the way we handle transactions and secure data.

    Conclusion

    To sum it up, the top 6 economic trends in 2024 are the rise of AI and automation, the gig economy, sustainability, e-commerce growth, and cryptocurrency’s influence.

    These are just a few examples of the economic trends we expect to see in 2024. It is essential for individuals and businesses to adapt and stay informed about these changes to thrive in the future.

  • How to Legally Reduce Taxes: Tips and Strategies

    Taxes are a fact of life, but there are ways to reduce your tax liability without breaking the law. In this post, I’ll cover several strategies that you can use to minimize your taxes and keep more of your hard-earned money.

    • Contributing to tax-deferred retirement accounts: One of the most effective ways to reduce your taxes is by contributing to tax-deferred retirement accounts. For example, if you have a 401(k) (in the United States) plan through your employer, you can contribute up to $19,500 per year. These contributions are made on a pre-tax basis, which means that they reduce your taxable income. For example, if you earn $50,000 per year and contribute $5,000 to your 401(k), your taxable income would be reduced to $45,000. This can result in significant tax savings.
    • Claiming deductions and credits: Another way to reduce your taxes is by claiming deductions and credits. For example, if you donate money to a charity, you can deduct the amount of your donation from your taxable income. Let’s say you donated $1,000 to a qualified charity and your marginal tax rate is 22%. You would save $220 on your taxes.
    • Utilizing tax-advantaged investment accounts: Investing in tax-advantaged accounts like Health Savings Accounts (HSAs) or 529 college savings plans can also provide tax benefits. For example, if you have an HSA, you can contribute up to $3,650 per year if you have individual coverage or $7,300 per year if you have family coverage. These contributions are tax-deductible and can be used to pay for qualified medical expenses tax-free.
    • Timing capital gains and losses: If you have investments that have appreciated in value, consider selling them at a time when you have losses to offset the gains. For example, let’s say you bought a stock for $1,000 and it has increased in value to $1,500. If you sell the stock, you would realize a capital gain of $500. However, if you also have another investment that has lost $500, you could sell that investment to offset the gain, resulting in no tax liability.
    • Starting a business: Owning a business can provide tax deductions for expenses such as home office space, travel, and equipment. For example, if you work from home, you may be able to deduct a portion of your home expenses, such as rent or mortgage interest, property taxes, and utilities, as a business expense.
    • Taking advantage of tax-efficient investments: Some investments, like municipal bonds or index funds, are more tax-efficient and can help reduce your overall tax liability. For example, if you invest in a municipal bond, the interest you earn is generally tax-free at the federal level, and may also be tax-free at the state level if you live in the state where the bond was issued. Also, index funds are also more tax-efficient compared to mutual funds. This is because index funds tend to have lower portfolio turnover, which can result in lower capital gains distributions and tax liabilities.
    • Hiring a tax professional: Finally, it’s always a good idea to consult a tax professional who can help you identify additional tax-saving opportunities and ensure that you are taking advantage of all available deductions and credits.

    Conclusion: In conclusion, reducing your taxes can help you keep more of your hard-earned money. By using strategies like contributing to tax-deferred retirement accounts, claiming deductions and credits, and taking advantage of tax-efficient investments, you can minimize your tax liability and maximize your savings.

  • The rice export ban by India will have a major impact on the World

    Hi all, today, I am going to dive into some breaking news that’s sending ripples across the world’s food markets.

    There’s a rice ban in play by the Indian government, and it’s set to have some major consequences.

    Brace yourselves because this ban is no small deal. It’s projected to reduce the world’s rice shipments by almost half, leaving many wondering what this means for inflation and food prices worldwide.

    What is causing the ban?

    So, you might be asking, “Why the ban in the first place?” Well, here’s the deal –

    Last week, the Indian government put a ban on the export of non-Basmati rice varieties.

    Retail prices for white rice have been on the rise in India, and it’s got the Indian government on high alert.

    In just one month, white rice prices shot up by 3%; over the past year, they increased by a whopping 11.5%. Ouch!

    But here’s the kicker: Devastating monsoons, on which Indian agriculture relies heavily, are the main reason affecting this price surge.

    The unpredictable weather has wreaked havoc on rice production in India, creating concerns about food supplies in India and beyond.

    And that’s why the Indian government had to make some tough decisions.

    Key points showing the impact

    Now Let’s break down some key points to get a clearer picture of the impact:

    1. A rice ban of this magnitude will affect about half of the world’s rice exports – that’s a huge chunk!
    1. India is a major player in the global rice market, accounting for a whopping 40% of all rice exports. So, when India makes a move, the world will notice.
    1. Here’s a staggering statistic: rice is a staple food for over 3 billion people worldwide. Yes, you heard that right, 3 billion! That’s roughly 40% of the entire world’s population relying on rice as a dietary staple.

    NRI community in the US is hoarding rice further increasing the price and shortage

    In the US, the ban on non-Basmati rice exports from India is causing quite a stir. This is especially among the Telugu community living here. People are rushing to stock up on rice, fearing a potential shortage and higher prices.

    Indian grocery stores in major cities like Texas, LA, Michigan, and New Jersey are seeing long queues and a surge in demand for rice.

    Why all the fuss over rice? Well, a 9kg bag of rice is being sold at a massive PRICE OF 27 dollars due to the export ban, which is contributing to the worries.

    These grocery stores have even implemented restrictions, allowing only one rice bag per customer to manage the situation.

    Why is this panic buying happening?

    The panic buying might be twofold:

    First, there’s concern about the scarcity of fine variety rice like Sona Mahsuri, which is much sought-after.

    And secondly, with the ban in place, there’s a possibility of rice prices skyrocketing.

    According to a leading economic news source in India, Economictimes, several countries, including Benin, Nepal, Bangladesh, China, Cote D’Ivoire, and others, heavily rely on non-basmati rice imports from India. With this recent ban, it’s projected that world rice shipments will be cut almost in half, raising fears of global inflation in food markets.

    So, guys, this rice ban is causing quite a stir in the world’s food markets  With half of the world’s rice shipments set to be impacted and India being a significant player in the global rice trade, we can’t underestimate the potential consequences.

  • The latest inflation report is out! What to expect next from the Fed?

    The bureau of labor statistics (BLS) just released the inflation number for January 2023 for the United States.

    There is a 0.5% increase from the December number, and inflation sits at still a whooping high of 6.4% over the last 12 months from January 2022.

    As you can see in the BLS chart above, the year-to-year inflation is 6.4% for all the items, 10.1% for food, 8.7% for energy, and 5.6% for all the things except food and energy. Also, in their press release, they mentioned the index for shelter was the largest contributor to the monthly inflation number.

    By shelter, they mean rents and owner equivalent rent cost of housing.

    If you look at this detailed table from them, it shows the breakdown in prices for all the individual items.

    Source: BLS


    Under the energy category, fuel oil is still up by 27.7% for the 12 months. Natural gas is also up by 26.7% in the 12 months.

    There is a 14% rise in Dairy and related products in the food category. 

    You can see that the highest inflation happened in cereal and bakery products. This was mainly because of the rise in egg prices because we felt that in the grocery stores.

    What caused egg prices to rise so much?

    Economists think the bird flu was the main reason behind increased egg prices because about 40 million egg-laying hens died in 2022 because of this disease.

     At the same time and the demand for eggs continues to rise because it provides a cheaper source of protein to many Americans. Thus both these supply and demand factors contributed to a significant rise in egg prices. 

    Was this inflation expected?

    This came as a little bit of a disappointment because people were expecting the overall inflation not to rise if not fall from the December level, even though fuel prices seem to be falling.


    Inflation is still high on many essential things, and it continues to be the biggest hit to poor Americans. It acts like an indirect tax on them.

     
    Unfortunately, most of this inflation we are experiencing is caused by supply-side factors, which are difficult to fix in the short run.

    Policy implication

    The government can only focus on controlling the demand aspect of inflation in the short run. As a result, the Fed will continue to tighten the monetary policy and raise interest rates until inflation reaches around 2%

    The federal reserve has been trying to control inflation using interest rate hikes to slow the demand in the economy.


    To learn more about inflation, how it is calculated, and the factors that cause it, please see my post here.

  • What factors influence the exchange rate?

    The exchange rate is the rate at which one country’s currency trades or exchanges against another country’s currency. Simply put, if there are two countries US and India, how many Indian Rupees equate to 1 USD? You can also write it as the ratio of one currency over another currency.

    Many factors influence how the exchange rates are set. In this post, you will learn about those, but first, let’s understand where the currency exchange takes place.

    Foreign Exchange Market is the biggest market in the world by volume and it determines the exchange rates of currencies against each other

    The currency exchange happens in the foreign exchange market, also called the forex market. It is the global marketplace that sets the exchange rate for currencies around the world. It is a decentralized or over-the-counter market for the trading of currencies at their current market price.

    Foreign exchange markets include large international banks, central banks, multinational companies, investment banks, forex dealers, hedge funds, etc. All of these buy, sell, exchange, and make guesses on the relative exchange rates of any two currency combinations.

    Why do we care about exchange rate fluctuations?

    For any international currency transaction, you need to know the exchange rate. So, if the current exchange rate is 1 USD=80 Indian Rupees, this means when you go to India, you would get approx. Rs 80 for 1 USD. Similarly, if an Indian comes to the US, they would have to pay approx. Rs 8000 to get $100. In real life, foreign exchange dealers make a small profit on any foreign exchange transaction.

    USD appreciated against major currencies of the World

    Recently, in the news, you must have heard that the US Dollar has appreciated against major currencies of the world. I found this chart from IMF’s Oct 4, 2022 blog post and it shows the US dollar vs major currencies. You can see how the USD appreciated against the British Pound sterling, Japanese Yen, Indian Rupee, Euro, and many others since the start of 2022.

    The IMF post stated that economic fundamentals are a major factor in the appreciation of the dollar. Rising US interest rates and its more favorable terms-of-trade compared to other countries in Eurozone, UK, Japan and China have caused the US dollar to emerge stronger.

    Don’t worry if this isn’t clear to you yet, I will explain this mechanism in just a bit.

    What factors influence a price of a currency against another currency?

    The answer to this question lies in the fundamental economic concept of excess demand. The price of a currency relative to another currency will go up if there is more demand for it.

    A country’s exchange rate can either Appreciate, which is an increase in the value of the currency, or the exchange rate

    Or

    Depreciate/devalue, which is a decrease in the value of a country’s currency or the exchange rate.

    Below I have a chart from google finance showing a continued appreciation of USD or the depreciation of Indian Rupees. Twenty years ago, the exchange rate for 1 USD was around 45 Rupees. Since then, the demand for USD has been rising and the price of USD relative to the Indian Rupee has been rising. As of Oct 15, 2022, it is 82 Rupees to 1 USD.

    In the graph below, you can see how the intersection of demand and supply determines the price or exchange rate. We will take call point A as the year 2014 when the exchange rate for 1 USD was 65 Indian Rupees, where demand and supply met.

    With a continued increase in demand for USD, the demand curve shifted up to the right. With the same supply, the new intersection happens at point B, at this point the price of 1 USD is 80 Rupees in Oct 2022. Thus, if the demand for a currency is high relative to another currency, its exchange rate will go up. The opposite will happen when the demand for a currency is low relative to another currency.

    What causes a change in the demand for a currency?

    Many factors can influence the currency’s demand and the exchange rate. Let’s understand the most important ones below. Since we are looking at the appreciation of the USD against major currencies, I will use USD as an example to explain it.

    • Relative Interest rates

    When interest rates are higher in a country there are more money inflows in the US. This happens because international investors would invest there to get better returns. As investment happens in the USD, there’s more demand for USD. This causes the USD value or the exchange rate to appreciate.

    • Relative inflation

    A low and stable inflation rate also plays a key role. Many developed countries such as the US, and the UK have had inflation of around 2% in the past. Although this has changed recently after the pandemic and Ukraine war, it is still lower than in many other countries.

    A lot of times more than one factor play a role in influencing the exchange rate

    A low Inflation rate in the U.S. relative to another country, such as India, can cause the US currency to appreciate. Let me explain why this happens. Low inflation in the US will mean US imports become cheaper to India and India will demand more US-made goods. I just want to point out that when India imports from the US, it pays for those in USD. So, increased demand for US imports will lead to increased demand for USD. This will cause its relative value or exchange rate to rise against the Indian rupee. For more than a year US economy has been witnessing high inflation. The reason USD is going strong is because other countries are dealing with even higher inflation.

    • Current account surplus

    A current account is the balance of trade between a country and other countries it does international trade with. It includes all the payments between countries for physical goods, services, interest, and dividends.  A deficit in the current account shows a country’s imports are more than its exports. To cover this deficit, that country will usually borrow capital from other foreign countries. This causes its currency to depreciate.

    • Relative Strength of the economy

    Also, the relative strength of the US in comparison to other developed countries plays a role too.  If the world is worried about other developed countries’ performances such as the UK, EU, and Russia, the U.S. dollar price will rise in the international market.

    • Speculation

    Also, expectation and speculation play a role in determining a currency exchange rate. If more people believe that the value of the U.S. dollar will rise relative to other currencies in the future, they will demand more of the US dollar to sell it later for a profit. This is going to further increase the demand for the U.S. dollar causing an increase in its value.

    • Relative Competitiveness

    If businesses in the US become more competitive relative to the UK, this will also cause an increase in demand for US-made goods causing an appreciation or increase in the value of the U.S. dollar compared to the pound sterling.

    Conclusion

    In the long run, how strong a country’s economy is and how competitive it is relative to its other countries will determine its exchange rate. A technological innovation that leads to higher productivity will strengthen that country in the international market and will lead to an appreciation in its value.

    What has caused exchange rate fluctuations can be hard to pinpoint, as most of the time several factors play the role.

    Clearly, an appreciation in the US dollar has made travel to the UK and other countries much more affordable for the US people. To see who all benefit from the appreciation or depreciation of a currency, stay tuned for my next post.

    Credit: Images from Freepik

  • How does people’s expectation about inflation affect the actual inflation?

    What people like you and me think about inflation directly impacts the actual inflation rate. So, if we think inflation will be high in the coming months, it will most likely be. In this post, I will explain how this phenomenon works.

    If we expect that overall prices are going to rise in the coming months, we may buy more things now, rather than in the future. If a lot of people do that, this increases the demand for goods and services.

    High inflation is directly linked to a higher demand that is not immediately matched by an increase in supply. As a result, firms increase the prices of goods and services when there is more demand. This enables them to make more profit. As a result, we see increased prices passed on to the consumers causing higher inflation.

    On the other hand, if people expect prices to fall in the future, they may delay spending now to get a better deal. This will result in a decrease in demand for goods and services and businesses will end up lowering prices to clear up their stock.

    So, now we understand how inflation expectations affect actual inflation. If you want to know more about inflation and how it is calculated, you can refer to my post here.

    What is the current inflation expectation in the U.S.?

    After suffering from really high inflation close to 8%-9% for over half a year, we foresee some good news. A survey conducted by the Fed reserve bank of New York shows a decrease in these expectations.

    People in the U.S. feel that one and three-year-ahead inflation are now going to be 5.7 % and 2.8 % respectively.

    These are clearly lower than 6.2 % and 3.2 % in June for one and three years ahead inflation rates respectively. In the figure from the Federal Reserve of New York website, you can see how there is a decline in the curve of the expected inflation rate towards the end. This is the survey done in the month of August 2022 about what people think inflation may look like for 1 year and 3 years.

    It shows that people’s expectations are consistent with what the Fed is trying to achieve. By raising interest rates, the Fed is trying to slow down the demand in the U.S. When borrowing becomes expensive, people generally tend to borrow less for things like cars, mortgages, etc.

    In their September 20 meeting, the Fed is most likely going to raise the key federal funds rate by another 75 basis points. The Fed has been raising interest rates to fight the high inflation in the U.S for the last 6 months. Central banks in a lot of other countries fighting inflation have been doing the same.

    To learn more about the role of the central bank, stay tuned for my next post.

  • Did inflation fall to 0% in the US in July?

    Yesterday, in the news, I read President Biden saying the US had 0% inflation in July. The BLS, the official source of inflation numbers, reported no change in the CPI (Consumer price index) from June.

    So did inflation suddenly disappear? Well, it depends on how you measure it.

    Sometimes, the way politicians report some facts could give us misleading conclusions. So, the economist in me had to write something today to help my readers understand it better.

    How do we measure inflation?

    As I said above, the official inflation number in the US comes from the BLS every month. BLS calculates price inflation both monthly and annual.

    If you want to know more about inflation in simple words, you can read my previous posts. I described how we can calculate inflation using some simple examples. I also explained what policy measures the central bank takes to control inflation – my most favorite post.

    So was Biden lying when he said 0% inflation?

    There was indeed no general average price increase from June 2022 compared to July 2022. This meant a 0% monthly inflation.

    However, the year-to-year inflation ending July 2022, was 8.5%. This is still very high, compared to the average US inflation of around 2%. Inflation is the percentage price increase of a basket of goods and services people in the urban United States use. This is of course, over a specific period.

    But, the good news is that it was somewhat less than the June 2022-to-2021 inflation of 9.1%.

    A picture is worth a thousand words

    Here is a chart showing category-wise inflation. The food prices continued to rise. Few others, such as electricity, new vehicles, and shelter also rose.

    The main reason behind 0% monthly inflation was the falling gas prices. It offset the increase in food and shelter indexes. The lower gas prices finally come as a relief to millions of Americans. We have been experiencing a sharp rise in gas prices for a long time and wanted a break.

    Hopefully, Fed’s tight monetary policy will bring inflation down further in the coming months. But, there might be a cost to it- the possibility of a recession. As we say in economics, there is no free lunch. Let’s just hope that even if the R word happens, it is not significant.

  • The jobs market in the US is still going strong

    Two days ago, President Joe Biden proudly posted that the unemployment rate in the US was 3.5% in July. This matched the lowest rate in the last 50 years. He also said that since he started, 10 million jobs have been created in the US economy.

    Praising the fastest-growing job market, Biden mentioned that 528,000 jobs were added in the US in July itself. “Today, we also matched the lowest unemployment rate in America in the last 50 years: 3.5%,” he said.

    The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) in the US publishes data for the unemployment and labor force statistics every month. These are based on the data collected from household surveys and establishment surveys on sample-based estimates of employment.

    I got this Civilian unemployment rate graph from the BLS. You can see that the US unemployment rate is now at its lowest level at 3.5%. This had happened three times before in Sep 2019, Jan 2020, and Feb 2020, when it hit 3.5%.

    But have you ever wondered what is the unemployment rate anyway?

    Well, the unemployment rate is the percentage of people who don’t have a job but can work and have actively looked for a job in the past 4 weeks. This is relative to people in the labor force.

    According to the BLS, The labor force is the sum of employed and unemployed people ages 16 and older at a given period.

    Their recent report about July’s unemployment rate was contrary to what many people would have expected. People were expecting a somewhat slowdown in the job market, but clearly, this hasn’t happened yet. The Fed has been raising interest rates to control inflation. The Fed’s policy aims to cool the overheated economy by reducing overall spending by individuals and businesses.

    So what does a low unemployment rate mean for you?

    If you are looking for work or want a change of job, right now could still be a good time for that. There’s a huge likelihood of you finding it sooner than later and as per your terms. With many employers paying higher salaries, it is a good time to ask for a raise if you think you deserve it.

    When the effects of tightening monetary policy start showing up and we see a reduction in jobs created, it might be a little late to negotiate.

    As always, if you enjoyed reading my post and learned something, please feel free to write your views in the comment section below. Thank you, till we meet again next time!