Ending their two-day meeting, the Fed (central bank of the US) has once again raised interest rates. The reason for the hike is to control inflation. The United States Congress has given the Fed a dual responsibility – to achieve maximum employment and keep inflation around the rate of 2% over the longer run.
The average consumer in the US has been feeling the burden of rising prices, especially since the start of this year, esp. in gas, housing (including rental), and food prices. The Consumer Price Index, which measures inflation in the US has been at an elevated level for quite some time. In their press release, as of July 13, 2022, the BLS published inflation at 9.1%.
How does the interest rate affect inflation?
Going back to today’s news, let’s understand how the interest rate mechanism works. The FOMC (Federal open markets committee) is responsible for determining the federal funds rate target range. This is the rate at which banks borrow from each other. The Fed doesn’t set this rate, but market forces determine it.
The reason this rate is very important to us is through its linkages to other rates. This federal funds rate impacts all the other interest rates such as on credit cards, housing, auto, and education loans.
How much did Fed raise interest rates?
In today’s meeting, the Federal open market committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate from 2.25% to 2.5%. This increase has moved the Federal funds rate to its highest level since December 2018. During their June 13, 2022 meeting, they increased the target range for the Federal funds rate to be 1.25% – 1.75%. You can see the graph of this rate over time here.
So how does the Fed steer the federal funds rate?
It uses “interest on reserves balance” as its main monetary policy tool for that. To understand it better, you can read my article here, which explains this in detail. When the Federal funds rate (borrowing costs of banks) is high, banks will pass on these added costs to their final consumers. These consumers include people like you and me, and businesses.
In a nutshell
The main idea behind this repeated increase in the interest rate is that expensive loans will discourage people from spending. When the cost of borrowing (interest rate) is high, general consumers (households) borrow less for a big purchase such as a car or a house. Similarly, businesses also invest less in the expansion of their plant, inventories, machinery, buildings, etc. All of this will reduce the demand for goods and services these businesses make and they will also hire fewer workers. And when the excess (increased) demand is lower, the prices will eventually start falling, which will control high inflation. Thus, interest rate hikes are the Fed’s main tool to control inflation.
Inflation happens because of strong consumer demand, which supply can’t match. Supply bottlenecks with China during the Covid pandemic, Ukraine war, etc have all contributed to a weaker supply of many essential items we use every day. Since many of the supply chain issues will take a long time to fix, the Fed is trying to control the demand aspect of inflation. By raising interest rates, and making borrowing more expensive, the Fed is hoping to weaken Americans’ willingness to spend money and ultimately bring inflation close to its 2% target level.
