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Category: Current Economic News

Get a simple analysis of the latest economic news.

  • What does a vaccine, a park and a factory have in common?

    These are all examples of externalities. Sorry, if this sounds too complicated at the beginning, it will all make sense as you read along. Externalities can happen when the after-effects of certain actions can spill over to other people not directly involved in it. These could be either positive or negative spillovers.

    Externalities can arise between producers, between consumers or between consumers and producers. Externalities can be negative when the action of one party imposes costs on another, or positive when the action of one party benefits another.

    Let’s look at an example of a positive externality. Vaccination for any infectious disease would be a positive externality because vaccination will reduce the overall severity, symptoms, and thus the possibility of spread of infection of that particular disease. This will also benefit people who are not vaccinated through positive spill overs by others who are. People who didn’t receive the vaccine are less likely to get an infection if more and more people around them are vaccinated. Vaccination also reduces the burden on a country’s healthcare and benefits society. Most recent example of this is the Covid 19 vaccine, which was provided mainly by the government in many countries to stop the spread of infection.

    In both positive or negative externalities, government intervention is required to make sure the businesses that create externalities get the benefits for positive externalities or pay the price for negative externalities.

    If a factory is producing toys but at the same time polluting the environment, people are bearing the cost of pollution. This is a negative externality. From an economic perspective, the business is transferring some of its cost of production to society. Without any tax on pollution, that business factory’s actual cost of production is less than what it should be, so it can charge lower prices from the people for the toys it produces. This reduced price creates more demand for toys, making the business produce more and more toys and thus polluting the air more.

    In our first example above, the factory will find ways to reduce its chimney smoke from polluting air if it has to pay the price for its pollution. Government can impose taxes in these cases. Tax will also increase the overall cost of production for the business. The business will be forced to charge higher prices from the consumers, which will, in turn, reduce the demand for it and the over-pollution problem will be solved to some extent. Similarly, water pollution that is caused by industrial effluents can harm ocean life, other plants, animals, and humans. The government imposing a tax on factories creating water pollution can limit it to some extent. In economics, the use of tax to limit negative spillovers is known as internalizing the externality.

    Another type of negative externality is caused by smoking. The government wants to discourage smoking and thus impose heavy duties and taxes on cigarette manufacturers because active or passive smoking both are harmful to society. Thus, cigarettes sell at a fairly expensive price. People who can’t afford to buy can refrain from consuming it. Also, smoking is banned in public places and to minors, these are all attempts to reduce the consumption of smoke.

    Similarly, to encourage businesses with positive externalities, government can provide subsidies to those producers. When producers get subsidy it lowers their cost of production and it encourages them to produce more. Also, the subsidy is a government expenditure, which government meets through taxation on general public. This taxation on general public is either form of direct tax (like income tax) or indirect taxes (like those paid on goods and services when we buy them.) Thus, the society who is reaping the fruits of a positive externalities ultimately ends up paying the price of subsidy.

    One example of this is public (government funded) education, when the government subsidizes public education, a greater quantity of education (more schools and colleges) is made and the society as a whole reaps the spillover benefits of more educated people. Also, parks, the police force, and public hospitals provided by the government provide benefits to any person who lives in the neighborhood. These are called public goods with positive externalities that are nonexcludable and benefit the larger public who indirectly pay for them through taxation.

    https://accounts.home.sophos.com/install/2643462108c52a5001a27160720a2cd5/281c5ca0ca35495b1856a577a19d6e5c

  • GDP in the US decreased in the first three months of 2022

    You might have heard in the news might have heard that the US economy has contracted in the first quarter of 2022. When we talk about economic contraction or expansion, we look at the % change in the most widely used statistic to measure the overall economic health of a country, also known as the GDP. Many were surprised by this decline, and it’s said as the worst quarter since the pandemic started in March 2020. To know more about what GDP is, please click here.

    The official source of publishing GDP numbers in the US is the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In their April 28, 2022 press release, they projected an annual 1.4% decline in the real Gross Domestic Product of Q1 2022 vs a growth projection of 6.9% in Q4 2021.  If you want to see the details about the calculation, data, and assumptions, you can check this page here. https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product

    What were the reasons for this decline?

    The main reason that made the GDP growth negative was the trade deficit, meaning imports were far more than our exports, as US domestic supply couldn’t keep up with the domestic demand.  In addition to the trade deficit, the GDP was also deflated by the omicron variant of COVID that shut down some businesses, and the government-funded pandemic relief to businesses and households decreased or stopped altogether by the first quarter of 2022.

    Should we worry about this slowdown?

    Despite the projection, economists are saying that there is no reason to panic yet because this GDP decline happened due to the net export component. In the chart below, data collected from BEA shows the percent shares of each of the four main contributors to the US GDP in the 2022 Q1.

    The two major contributors to the US GDP have been consumption and investment, and both remained strong. Consumption, which is the most important driver of the US economy (contributing to almost 70%) increased during the first quarter at a rate of 2.7% annually, compared to 2.5% during the fourth quarter of 2021. Similarly, the business investment such as capital expenditure on factories, equipment, software, etc. remained robust and hence should increase productivity for the remainder of 2022. Firms’ investment had grown at a rate of 9.2% in the first quarter of 2022 which is a significant increase from the 2.9% increase in the last quarter of 2021.

    In summary, even though the GDP first quarter fell, it is not indicating a recession coming. A recession is defined as a fall in GDP in two successive quarters. And we may only hope for a better future and some happy news in the economy.

  • Gas prices are too high, but why?

    Both gasoline and diesel prices are still up. Drivers across the US and globally are feeling pain when they visit gas stations to pump gas. You can see that both gas and diesel prices have been trending up in each of the regions in the entire US from October 2021, with a steep rise after Russia started the Ukraine war. I got these charts from the US Energy Information Administration, which is the US official source of data for energy information.

    And since gasoline and diesel both are needed for the transportation of many goods, the increase in fuel prices has several linkages to other industries as well. In this image, taken from the US EIA website, you can see, that the national average for a gallon of gas in the United States was $4.11 and $5.12 for diesel as of April 2022.

    What has caused the continued rise in fuel prices?  

    In most simple terms, it is the imbalance between the supply and demand of crude oil. There is an increasing oil demand, while there is not enough supply. Gasoline and diesel both are made from crude oil. The petroleum refineries make gasoline and other petroleum products from crude oil.

    You might ask why the gas price is high in the US when it only imports a very small percent of crude oil from Russia. The answer to this lies in the fact that crude oil prices are set in the global market.


    In this chart, you can see the supply and demand imbalance.

    On the x-axis, we have the quantity of crude oil demanded and supplied and on the y-axis is the price of crude oil. For any commodity, an equilibrium price is set, where the upward-sloping supply curve and the downward-sloping demand curve intersect. That is the quantity that the producers are willing to supply and the quantity the consumers are willing to buy at a price that works for both.

    If the producers supply more than what consumers demand, then the price of that commodity will fall because there is excess supply. On the other hand, if demand for a commodity is more than what the producers can supply, it causes price to increase because there is excess demand and consumers are willing to pay more. In the case of oil price hike, the latter has happened. This has led to both a rise in price of crude oil and a lower equilibrium quantity of crude oil consumed and supplied. The above chart shows that as Q1 and P1.

    The economic sanctions put on Russia by the United States and the European Union in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine have had a shattering effect on the Russian oil supply to the world. Many countries have cut trade ties with Russia, leading to a lower supply from Russia. Even though, US has become the largest producer of crude oil. Russia is still one of the biggest crude oil producers in the world, so it has a significant influence on the total industry output in the global oil market.

    When Russian oil is not available to its full capacity, the world supply of crude oil has dramatically decreased. This has caused crude oil prices to rise significantly. During the early part of 2020, when the demand for transportation dropped significantly due to the lockdown, crude oil was at an average price of $39 a barrel. This was its lowest price since 2003.

    However, as the lockdown eased and economies returned to normal, there has been an increasing demand for crude oil. With people commuting to work again, traveling on vacation, and going out more, the demand for gasoline has resumed. While the suppliers are not able to increase the supply of crude oil, there is an increasing demand. The price of crude oil in the international market exploded to $139 before settling at $123 a barrel. Much of the inflation is due to a rapid rise in crude oil.

    Crude oil is used to produce gasoline, so fuel refining companies like Exxon, Chevron and others are passing the higher costs of production on to consumers by raising prices at the pump. This is the inflation caused by supply factors.

    Million dollar question in everyone’s mind is when will the fuel prices go back to normal?

    The sad news is that Economists don’t expect gas prices to fall anytime soon, unless war in Ukraine comes to an end and and some sort of order is restored in Europe. Until then, the world oil market will continue to struggle to provide an adequate supply to meet worldwide demand meaning that crude oil prices will remain high. This of course will keep prices inflated at the pump and drivers will struggle to fill their tanks.

    Additionally, as summer approaches, the demand for travel will continue to rise and the average cost of a gallon of gas might peak at $5. Many economists believe that even if supply issues are fixed and prices start to decline in the coming months, the average is still expected to remain over $4 nationally until at least November, as the adjustments take time.

    Going forward the best strategy for countries will be to keep extra reserves when the crude oil price is low. Investment in alternative energy sources will be the strategy for the future to withstand such supply shocks.

    If you want to know more about it, you can also refer to CNN’s article on June 1. Is it just a coincidence that a famous news channel published this article a few days after I did? It is not. This is just what everyone wants to know. https://www.cnn.com/2022/06/01/energy/record-gas-price-causes/index.html

  • Global economy will slow down in 2022 and 2023. What policy measures the governments should take to get back to growth trajectory?

    IMF projects lower global GDP growth of 3.6% for the next two years

    IMF’s World Economic Outlook report published on April 19, 2022 has predicted a drop in the GDP growth of the world economies in the years 2022 and 2023 to 3.6%. This downward revision is from their previous estimate of 6.1%, largely because of the war in Ukraine. IMF publishes this report twice every year.

    Below is the chart from IMF showing these growth projections by region. These projections are for real GDP growth and not nominal GDP growth. As changes in real GDP are the most popular indicator of a country’s overall economic condition. If you want to know more about the US GDP and its components, please click here.

    Countries, like the United States, the EU, Japan, the UK, Canada, and other advanced countries are projected to grow on an average of 3.3% in 2022 and only 2.4% in 2023.

    The emerging market and developing countries such as India are projected to grow at 8.2% in 2022 and 6.9% in 2023. Whereas because of the lockdown in Shanghai, China, the projected growth is slightly lower at 4.4% in 2022 and it is expected to be 5.1% in 2023, as the lockdowns are eased.

    As expected, there is a severe double-digit drop (-35%) in GDP projection for Ukraine in 2022. They also project a contraction for Russia due to sanctions and European countries’ decisions to reduce energy imports. The war has also severely impacted emerging and developing Europe, which shares proximity to the war area with an expected fall of 2.9% in their real GDP in 2022. There is a hope of some recovery in 2023 with GDP growth returning to 1.3%. Russia will see a GDP growth of -8.5% in 2022 and -2.3% in 2023.

    The two charts below show the GDP growth comparison in some major countries of the world after the start of the global pandemic. The first chart shows the performance in the years 2020 and 21.

    The second chart shows the projections by IMF for the years 2022 and 2023.

    Sadly, the war just doesn’t affect the countries directly involved, its economic costs and implications are widespread. Through commodity markets, trade, and to some extent financial interlinkages of the countries, the war can indirectly affect so many more countries.

    Globally we are seeing rise in fuel and food prices since late 2021. The fear of War is aggravating high inflation problem even further. Unfortunately, the world’s poor population, particularly in low-income countries is getting the most impacted by this. To know more about inflation, please click here.

    Many leading economists propose mutual efforts by countries to respond to the war crisis and prevent further economic fragmentation. At the same time, it is important to manage the debt problem, tackle climate change and end the pandemic to bring back economic growth.

    Fighting inflation without slowing down the economy is the toughest challenge many central banks are facing currently. To know more about monetary policy and the role of a central bank, in controlling inflation, please click here.